Bitcoin's Market Struggles | Institutional Analysis Reveals Liquidity Concerns
Edited By
Taro Nishimura
Bitcoin is facing a critical juncture, with recent reports highlighting a significant drop in price from $90,809 to a projected liquidity floor of $22,000 to $28,000. Institutional analysis suggests deeper issues threaten the cryptocurrency's stability.
Current Bitcoin Trends
As of November 29, 2025, Bitcoin has experienced its first daily close below the EMA-116 since March 2024, signaling a potential bear trend. The volatility within the market is underscored by a recent death cross between the EMA-11 and EMA-21 indicators, raising alarms about its future trajectory.
Current BTC price: $90,809
Previous bull structure: EMA-116 at $105,527
Significant volume gap: $84,000 to $30,000
Institutional Insights
Experts now describe the Bitcoin ecosystem as akin to a multi-tranche synthetic CDO², devoid of fundamental cash flows. Predictions indicate that $1.5 to $2 trillion in new capital would be needed to revive Bitcoin's price to the $180,000 mark, a figure that appears unreachable given current economic conditions.
“The Bitcoin ecosystem has become a multi-tranche synthetic CDO squared,” observers note.
Where Do We Go From Here?
With miner capitulation well underway and a reported hash price dropping into all-time low territory ($41-$43), the stress on public miners is escalating. Notably, miners like MARA and Riot are burning up to 60% of their monthly BTC revenue just to cover electricity costs.
"Forced selling of 250k BTC is looming if the price drops below $52k."
"The VPVR shows significant liquidity voids around current price levels."
A Chaotic Future Ahead
If the price of Bitcoin tumbles below $80k, significant market impacts could follow:
Miner sales could exceed 3,000 BTC/day hitting exchanges, exacerbating the downward pressure.
Anticipated ETF redemption spirals could lead to $20 to $40 billion in weekly outflows.
Potential for stablecoin de-pegs, starting with USDT, could create further market instability.
📉 Bitcoin's current price of $90,809 is under threat from significant liquidity voids.
🔥 A looming miner capitulation could lead to the sale of 3,000+ BTC daily as market pressures increase.
🚨 ETF redemption trends signal a possibility of $20-$40 billion in withdrawals, presenting further risk.
The market is now entering a turbulent phase, with analysts warning that this situation could surpass the 2008 crisis, due to the unprecedented nature of Bitcoin as a financial instrument. The upcoming weeks will be crucial to see how the market responds following potential breaks in crucial price levels. Will it stabilize, or continue its dramatic descent?
Predictions of Market Dynamics
As the pressure mounts on Bitcoin, it’s likely that we will see a sharp increase in miner sell-offs if prices drop below the critical $80,000 mark. Experts estimate a roughly 70% chance of daily BTC sales exceeding 3,000 units by that time, driven by miners’ desperate need to cover costs as the hash price sinks further. Additionally, continuous ETF redemptions could lead to $20 to $40 billion in weekly outflows, making a recovery to more favorable price levels seem remote. If these liquidity issues persist, there’s a strong possibility that Bitcoin may stabilize only after bridging a new support level around $40,000, which could take several months given current market sentiment.
The Unforeseen Impact of Structural Decline
This situation resembles the aftermath of the US housing bubble burst in 2008, where the unexpected failure of seemingly secure financial structures led to a widespread credit freeze. Just as homeowners faced sudden negative equity, Bitcoin holders might soon find themselves in a liquidity crisis as market players rush to sell. In both scenarios, the shockwaves sent through interconnected markets created a feedback loop of urgency and panic. The looming challenges within Bitcoin's infrastructure reflect how trust in foundational financial systems can falter, leading to rapid and chaotic adjustments. Like then, the path to recovery may hinge on broader sentiment and external economic policies rather than merely market mechanics.